Tips by Neil Evans
Track Heavy 10 and rail True
Race 1 - 12:50PM COGBURN WORLDS FASTEST HORSE @ WIDDEN H (1600 METRES) |
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5. ALABAMA FOX ($2.20 favourite on TAB) won two straight up to BM64 level before faltering in consecutive and tougher races without a lot of luck on her side. Back in grade from a much lower draw and with the leading rider taking over in what is now a weakened race. 1. Fear No Evil ($3.70) is progressive having won her first two and then was beaten less than a length in the Wagga Guineas last start. This is tougher, but she'll roll forward in suitable conditions. 6. Willie Oppa ($3.80) is an improver over further second-up and a clear next best.
How to play it: Alabama Fox to win
Race 2 - 1:25PM TRAFFIC WARDEN @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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Exceedance filly 9. CHANGE MY ADDRESS ($2.70 fav) has her first start for the John Sargent yard behind two eye-catching trials. Bolted in the most recent run in heavy going and finds a race now left with only five runners. Another debutant 10. Marinera ($3.70) from the Bjorn Baker stable has won both lead-up trials on rain-affected ground and draws the inside. 4. Jet ($3.70) went under as an odds-on favourite in open country class on debut and is right in contention.
How to play it: Change My Address to win
Race 3 - 2:00PM VINNIE THREE-TIME CHAMPION SIRE HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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1. MANSIERE ($5) is a tough Victorian four-year-old by Brave Smash primed to snap a long wait for a third career win in ground he thrives. Was never far away in deeper races last spring and while he was well beaten first-up in a farcical three-horse race at Warrnambool, the winner is smart having then bolted in a Group 3 feature over the carnival at Morphettville. The 3kg claim is a big plus in these conditions and two of his three career wins so far have come on heavy ground. 2. Livin' Thing (3.30 fav) resumed with a narrow and tough win at Kembla, but shaping under the odds sneaking up in the weights against metro opposition. 7. Big Red Tequila ($6) must be included despite a wide draw, having roared home to win her maiden in heavy ground at only her third start. 5. First Person ($7) is an improving mare whose best form is all on soft and heavy tracks.
How to play it: Mansiere to win
Race 4 - 2:35PM ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP (2110 METRES) |
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6. JUNEBUG ($4) is an improving and sparingly raced on-speed mare who has been in and around the money in some handy provincial races. Gets a timely drop in grade here in a race lacking depth, drawn to get a cosy run and loves these conditions. 1. Black Run ($3.80 fav) looks a big threat getting to this longer trip third-up. 3. Up And Under ($5.50) has worked home late in his last couple and gets a key jockey change third-up also over a more suitably longer journey, while 7. Knights Armour ($4.80) was fair to the line through plenty of traffic at huge odds in the Wagga Cup and more at home on rain-affected ground. There's a gap to the rest.
How to play it: Junebug to win
Race 5 - 3:10PM HAWAII FIVE OH @ VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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5. APEX ($1.65 fav) is a frustrating yet smart three-year-old who can start a punters' payback mission here second-up in a thin race. Found ways to get beat last prep when well in the market before again going under resuming at Canterbury in lesser grade as a $1.60 favourite. Gets a better draw out in the middle here and more than comfortable finishing over them in these conditions. 2. Fangela ($5.50) is an iron-like Canberra seven-year-old who handles all going and finally gets a well deserved crack at city opposition. Has won three of his last four from just off the speed in open country class and looks fairly placed at this level after the jockey's 3kg allowance. 3. Struck Gold ($5) is a real wet tracker and clear best of the rest third-up with a 3kg claim. Include both 8. Ready To Shine ($10) fourth-up and 10. Elegant Empress ($12) second-up in first fours.
How to play it: Apex to win
Race 6 - 3:45PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES) |
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1. NAVAL COMMISSION ($3.60) is a tough five-year-old who relishes wet tracks and rates on top at the value second-up over a shade further. Came off two quiet trials to run home well fresh and solid in the market in a deeper race. Proven he holds that form into the next run and a superior jockey takes over. 3. Good Prize ($4.20) also thrives in the wet and takes the next step up into city company after three consecutive wins on the country and provincial circuit over this trip. 6. Sounds Unusual ($3.40 fav) gets blinkers added after missing by a whisker first-up at big odds over this trip, but still under the mark from a wide barrier.
How to play it: Naval Commission to win
Race 7 - 4:20PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES) |
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1. LITTLE COINTREAU ($4.20) comes back in grade after finishing well just behind the placegetters in tougher company at Randwick. Bred to get further and with a 2kg-claiming jockey having pattern options from a middle gate late in the day, he can finish best and take his winning strike rate to better than 30%. 5. Missile Seeker ($4.20) is another wet tracker ready for this next level after surging home to dominate a BM64 at the provincials. Big watch on 8. Stallone ($3.70 fav), a smart son of prolific wet track sire Extreme Choice, who resumes from a low draw behind two forward trials. 7. Lady Boss ($6) thrives in the ground and gets much needed weight relief deep into the prep.
How to play it: Little Cointreau to win
BEST BETS:
Race 1 - 5. ALABAMA FOX ($2.20 fav)
Race 6 - 1. NAVAL COMMISSION ($3.60)
BEST VALUE:
Race 4 - 6. JUNEBUG ($4)
All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting